2018年12月03日 第785期
市場動態
中美首腦同意暫停進一步加征新關稅
11月份中國在岸債市的違約規模超過了200億元人民幣
本周焦點
供應鏈轉移為越南提供機會
財經文章
   
 
   
   
主要股市表現一覽
   
本周重要經濟數據
 
 
index_778a
環球市場動態

股市

  • 美國: G20峰會後中美舉行晚宴, 特朗普同意暫緩對價值2000億美元的中國產品徵收25%關稅, 中美關係緩和跡象。全週計，道指升5.16%，報25,538.46點。標普500指數升4.85%，報點2,760.17。納指升5.64%，報7,330.54點。
  • 歐洲: 由於美國聯儲局的升息立場轉趨溫和，歐洲股市大多造好。全週計，英國富時100指數升0.39%，德國DAX指數升0.58%，法國CAC40指數升1.15 %。STOXX 600指數全週升0.99%，報357.49點。
  • 亞洲: 由於美股造好，加上中美貿易戰有所緩和, 亞太股市大多造好。全週計，日經225指數升3.25%，報22,351.06點。MSCI 亞太區指數升2.01%，報153.58點。

 

債券

  • 美國: 中美兩國領袖於G20峰會會面後，中美關係緩和, 投資者轉向股票市場。全週計，美國10年期國債孳息率跌5個基點，報3.044%。
  • 歐元區: 歐元區企業活動數據疲弱，令市場擔憂濟增長前景，因此壓抑對歐洲央行升息的預期。全週計，德國10年期國債孳息率跌3個基點，報0.312%。

商品

  • 油價：因俄羅斯與沙特可能延長原油減產協議及中美貿易戰暫時停火, 油價上升。全週計，紐約期油升1.01%，收報每桶50.93美元。

 

貨幣

  • 美元：聯儲局表示12月很大可能加息，帶動美元匯價上升。全週計，美匯指數升0.367%，報 97.272。
  • 中國：因貿易戰休戰消息利好人民幣滙價。全週計，人民幣兌1美元升0.035%，報6.946。

 

與經濟相關新聞

  • 美國：中美首腦同意暫停進一步加征新關稅，美國對華2000億美元商品關稅稅率1月份將維持在10%，如果90天後未能達成協議，關稅仍將提高至25%。
  • 美國：美國供應管理協會芝加哥分會公布的數據顯示，美國11月芝加哥採購經理指數(PMI)，由10月的58.4，升至66.4，高於市場預期的58。
  • 美國：紐約聯儲行長Williams說，中性利率是緊縮和寬鬆貨幣政策的分水嶺，中性利率水平低，可能會使通膨和通膨預期長期處於過低水平。
  • 美國：川普表示他希望能夠迅速與日本達成平衡的貿易協議。
  • 歐元區：據歐洲統計局公布，今年11月歐元區消費者物價調和指數初值放緩至2%，較前值低0.2個百分點，符市場預期。
  • 歐元區：義大利財長Tria表示，該國民粹主義聯盟政府從未打算與歐盟發生沖突，或質疑該國在歐盟的地位，同時他表達了與布魯塞爾找到預算解決方案的意願。
  • 歐元區：德國商業銀行表示，歐元區經濟增速放緩，外加一系列仍未解決的政治風險，很可能會迫使歐洲央行推遲加息至2020年3月份。
  • 日本：日本央行連續第四次調整了月度債券購買計畫，繼續努力放鬆對全球第二大債券市場的控制。
  • 日本：Nikkei/Markit數據顯示，日本11月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)終值上修，由10月所創半年高位52.9，僅降至52.2，創去年8月以來最低，高於初值51.8。
  • 澳洲：澳洲統計局公布，經季節調整後，澳洲今年第三季企業獲利連升第四季，但按季升幅放緩至1.9%(首季上修升2.4%)，市場原預期升幅加快至2.8%。
中國市場動態
經濟相關新聞

  • 彭博匯總數據顯示，11月份中國在岸債市的違約規模超過了200億元人民幣，創歷史新高，並一舉推動2018年的年度違約量破千億。

  • 白宮在聲明中表示，中國國家主席習近平表示，如果再次向他提出，他對批准高通收購恩智浦半導體的交易持開放態度。
 
 
 

供應鏈轉移為越南提供機會
 

即使G20峰會能夠達成超預期的協議，由貿易戰所引起的供應鏈轉移趨勢已經無法逆轉。這次供應鏈轉移的規模可能是自2001年中國加入世界貿易組織後最大的改變。企業尋找新的供應商，而越南逐漸成為他們的首選。


環球企業變更生產地
環球企業都很緊張，爭先恐後作出改變。一方面，中美貿易戰持續升溫，風險越來越大。另一方面，他們憂慮新興經濟體容納新企業的規模有限。先到先得令企業重視先發優勢。


近期，亞洲發生一系列產業鏈轉移的行動。6月份，一家香港家具生產商在越南購買了一家工廠。他們預期截至2019年底擴張床房面積至數十萬平方米。公司發表聲明表示，併購的目的在於轉移關稅帶來的潛在風險。


越南電子和製作商企業亦受惠本輪轉移。一些原本在中國運營的企業已經和他們簽訂新訂單。一些企業馬上將轉移其生產線從中國搬至越南。


一次變革
當中國經濟轉向服務業和高端製造業，產業鏈轉移就已經開始。任何離開中國的決定都是緩慢和具有不確定性。企業需要確保融資、供應商和物流。同時，法律和會計準則亦是企業考慮是否進入新國家的重要因素。


不過，貿易緊張局勢打破舊模型的平衡。一旦美國提高對中國2000億美元進口商品的關稅至25%，企業必須作出改變。


從危到機
小型新興亞洲經濟體會在世界兩大經濟體矛盾下面臨衝擊。東南亞經濟增長已經在第三季度錄得放緩。儘管越南製造業新興指數仍然高於區內其他經濟，但是已經出現回落。


但是，亞洲各國合作進度加快。為解決潛在的基建不足問題，中國和越南跨境高速公路、鐵路、橋樑和隧道已經加速落實。中國亦開始尋找和東協進一步合作，而越南是其中的一個重要的窗口。

 
 
 
Smart Beta指數基金 投資目的是跑贏指數
 

讀者朋友問，坊間的Smart Beta指數基金，和傳統指數基金有什麼分別。簡單說，傳統指數基金投資目的是跟足相關指數表現，股份比重是以成分股市值加權；Smart Beta指數基金是會有系統地整理成分股比重....
 
 
央行救火隊重現市場？
 

剛過去的周三，美聯儲局主席鮑威爾向市場傳遞樂觀的鴿派信號。他表示，利率水平僅低於大多數所預期的中性利率....
 
 
 

 
 
截至2018/11/30
 
股市指數

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

美國道瓊斯工業
25,538.46
5.16%
3.31%
美國標準普爾500
2,760.17
4.85%
3.24%
美國納斯達克指數
7,330.54
5.64%
6.19%
英國金融時報
6,980.24
0.39%
-9.20%
德國DAX
11,257.24
0.58%
-12.85%
法國CAC
5,003.92
1.15%
-5.81%
日本日經平均225
22,351.06
3.25%
-1.82%
澳洲ASX 200
5,667.16
-0.86%
-6.56%
南韓綜合
2,096.86
1.91%
-15.02%
香港恆生
26,506.75
2.23%
-11.41%
香港國企指數
10,621.74
2.24%
-9.29%
中國上證綜合
2,588.19
0.34%
-21.74%
中國深證綜合
1,337.74
0.19%
-29.57%
台灣加權
9,888.03
2.28%
-7.09%
印度Sensex
36,194.30
3.47%
6.28%
俄羅斯RTS
1,126.14
1.13%
-2.45%
巴西Bovespa
89,504.03
3.80%
17.15%
以本地貨幣計算

定息產品表現/同業拆息

最新水平

一週變幅(bp)

2017年12月31日水平

美國－2年期
2.79%
-2
1.88%
美國－10年期
2.99%
-5
2.41%
德國－10年期
0.31%
-3
0.43%
日本－10年期
0.09%
-1
0.05%
Libor–隔夜
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1個月
2.35%
3
1.56%
Libor–3個月
2.74%
4
1.69%
Euribor–1個月
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3個月
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1個月
2.70%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3個月
3.11%
4
4.91%
Hibor–隔夜
1.53%
84
1.34%
Hibor–1個月
1.20%
12
1.19%
Hibor–3個月
2.04%
6
1.31%
注意: 1 bp = 0.01%

商品(現貨價)/貨幣

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

原油(紐約商品交易所)
50.93
1.01%
-15.71%
黃金 ($/oz)
1222.5
-0.06%
-6.18%
標普高盛商品指數
406.5197
0.73%
-8.12%
RJ/CRB商品指數
187.9389
1.24%
-4.58%
波羅的海乾散貨指數
1231
12.63%
-9.88%
歐元兌美元
1.1371
0.19%
-5.08%
英鎊兌美元
1.2756
-0.64%
-5.49%
澳元兌美元
0.73
1.07%
-6.61%
美元兌日圓
113.51
0.58%
0.87%
資料來源：彭博
 
 
 
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
美國
Markit美國綜合採購經理人指數 (11月)
05/12
政府支出 (第三季)
07/12
貿易收支 (10月)
06/12
GDP經季調 (第三季)
07/12
 
首次申請失業救濟金人數 (12月)
06/12
日本
公司銷售 (第三季)
03/12
 
失業率 (11月)
07/12
日經日本綜合採購經理人指數 (11月)
05/12
 
密西根大學1年通貨膨脹 (12月)
07/12
官方準備資產 (11月)
07/12
歐元區
PPI (10月)
04/12
景氣動向領先指標 (10月)
07/12
Markit歐元區綜合採購經理人指數 (11月)
05/12
中國
財新中國綜合採購經理人指數 (11月)
05/12
  
零售銷售 (10月)
05/12
外匯存底 (11月)
07/12
 
 
 
 
 
 
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注意：我們的文章以及專欄內容並不是投資建議，亦非認同有關的投資策略。基金價格可升亦可跌，過往業績並不代表將來表現。作投資決定前，請先咨詢閣下之專業投資顧問，並閱讀有關基金的說明書及年報。

風險披露聲明：投資者應留意，部分產品透過衍生工具例如期貨合約及期權行使槓桿效應，其投資風險高於其他投資。基金價格可升亦可跌，基金並不保證可達致其整體投資目標。
 
 
 
03 December 2018 Issue 785
Market Commentary
The Chinese and US leaders agreed to suspend the plan of raising the tariff rate
The default scale of China's onshore bond market in November has exceeded 20 billion yuan
Highlight of the Week
The supply chain shift offers opportunities for Vietnam
Financial Editorials
   
 
   
   
Market Performance at a Glance
   
Important Economic Releases This Week
   
 
 
 
Global Market Commentary

Equity

  • US: After the G20 summit, China and the United States held a dinner meeting. Trump agreed to suspend the 25% tariff on Chinese import, the Sino-US relations are eased. For the whole week, the Dow rose by 5.16% to 25,538.46 points. The S&P 500 index rose by 4.85% to 2,760.17. The Nasdaq rose by 5.64% to 7,330.54.
  • Europe: European stock markets have mostly improved as the US Federal Reserve may slow down the plan of raising the interest rate. For the whole week, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.39%, the German DAX index rose by 0.58%, and the French CAC40 index rose by 1.15 percent. The STOXX 600 index rose by 0.99% to 357.49 points.
  • Asia: As the US stocks have improved and the Sino-US trade war has eased, most of the Asia-Pacific stock markets performed good. Over the week, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 3.25% to 22,351.06 points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by 2.01% to 153.58 points.

 

Commodity

  • Oil: Oil prices have risen due to the extension of the agreement on the reduction of crude oil between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the temporary eased relations between the China and US. Over the week, New York oil futures rose by 1.01% and close at $50.93 a barrel.

Bonds

  • US: After the leaders of China and the United States met at the G20 summit, Sino-US relations are eased and investors switched to the stock market. Over the week, the US 10-year bond yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.044%.

  • Europe: Since the corporate activities in the Eurozone were weak, people were worry about the economic prospect of Eurozone, which suppressed market expectations on the issue of raising interest rate of the European Central Bank. For the whole week, the German 10-year bond yield fell by 3 basis points to 0.312%.

Currency

  • US dollar: The Federal Reserve said that it is likely to raise interest rates in December, which drives the dollar exchange rate rise. For the whole week, the Dollar Index rose by 0.367% to 97.272.
  • China: The RMB exchange rate take advantage of the new of easd relations between China and US. For the whole week, the yuan rose by 0.035% against the US dollar to 6.946.

 

Economic-related News

  • U.S: The Chinese and US leaders agreed to suspend the plan of raising the tariff rate and remains the 10% tariff rate on 200 billion US dollars Chinese imports in January. However, the tariff rate will raise to 25% in case the agreement between China and US is not reached within 90 days.
  • U.S: According to the data from the American Institute of Supply Management in Chicago, the Chicago PMI rose from 58.4 in October to 66.4 in November, which was higher than market expectations of 58.
  • U.S: Williams, the President of Federal Reserve, said that the neutral interest rate is the main factor in determinating the usage of expansioary or contractionary monetary policy. He claimed that the inflation rate may maintain in a very low level in long term in case the real interest rate level is lower than the neutral ones.
  • U.S: Trump said he hopes to reach a balanced trade agreement with Japan quickly.
  • Euro-zone: According to the data of Euro, the harmonised index of consumer prices saw a decelerated growth to 2% in November, which was o.2% lower than the previous value. However, it is similar with the market expectations.
  • Euro-zone: Tria, the Italian Finance Minister, said that the government populism never intended to have a conflict with the EU, and he expressed his willingness to find a budget solution with Brussels.
  • Euro-zone: Commerzbank announced that the economic of euro zone is slowdown, and there are still a series of unresolved political risks, which may force the European Central Bank to postpone its interest rate raising plan to March 2020.
  • Japan: The Bank of Japan adjusted its monthly bond purchase plan for four times and may continue to loosen its control over the world's second-largest bond market.
  • Japan: According to Nikkei/Markit data, the final value of PMI in November dropped from 52.9 in October to 52.2, which was the lowest value since August of last year, however, it is higher than the initial value of 51.8.
  • Australia:The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that the corporate profit in Australia rose for the fourth quarter, but the quarterly growth rate was slow down from 2.4% in the first quarter to 1.9% in the this quarter, which is lower than the market expectation ofto 2.8%.
China Market Commentary
Economic-related news
  • According to the data from Bloomberg, the default scale of China's onshore bond market in November exceeded 20 billion yuan, and the annual default amount in 2018 has broken through 100 billion.
  • In the White House statement, it repoeted that Chinese President Xi Jinping signalled that China will allow a tie-up between two major semiconductor manufacturers which Chinese regulators have been blocking.
 
 
 

The supply chain shift offers opportunities for Vietnam
 

Even G20 summit has an out of expected result, it is too late to reverse the supply chain reaction from trade war risks. Global shift in cross-border supply chains right now is the biggest since China joined the WTO in 2001. Company is searching for new suppliers, Vietnam are emerging as their preferred destination.


Global companies shift their production
Global companies are nervous and scrambling around. The scramble is driven by the risk of more, and higher, U.S. tariffs on China. On the other hand, they fear that nearby emerging economies can only accommodate new businesses on a ”first come, first served” basis.


A dozen of relocation activity happened across Asia in recent months. In June, A Hong Kong furniture maker bought a factory in Vietnam. And they plan to expand the capacity to hundred thousand square meters by the end of 2019. The company mentioned, the acquisition is to mitigate the risks posed by tariffs.


Vietnam electronics and manufacturing solutions companies also benefit from this movement. The existing customers who have operation in China find them for new deals. Some companies will start moving their production base from China to Vietnam very soon.


A revolution
When China’s economy shifts toward services and high-end manufacture, supply chain relocation has been begun. Any relocation away from China is going to be very slow and uncertain. Companies need to secure funding, the right suppliers and new logistics. Legal and accounting issues in a new country are also problems for them.


However, trade tension seems to be a disruption for old model. If US raising tariffs on 200 billion in Chinese imports goods from 10% to 25%, companies must do something to change.


From Victims to opportunities
To be sure, smaller emerging Asian economies will be hurt in the trade war between the world’s top two economies worsening. Southeast Asia growth has slowed in the third quarter. Vietnam’s manufacturing sentiment indicator is the highest in Asia but is well off its peak.


However, Asia countries cooperation poised to speed up. To solve the infrastructure problems, the construction of China-Vietnam cross-border expressways, railways, bridges and tunnels is on the fast track. China is seeking to expand cooperation with ASEAN, and Vietnam can be an important widow.

Vietnam’s PM hoped that Japan will pour more investment in Vietnam to become the largest investor in the nation. The Vietnamese Government is paying special attention to attracting more Japanese investment in Vietnam. Vietnam is willing to tackle difficulties and obstacles for Japanese Investors. Because the Vietnamese Government also closely controls the inflation rate, real estate credit and stocks.
 
 
 
Smart Beta指數基金 投資目的是跑贏指數
 

讀者朋友問，坊間的Smart Beta指數基金，和傳統指數基金有什麼分別。簡單說，傳統指數基金投資目的是跟足相關指數表現，股份比重是以成分股市值加權；Smart Beta指數基金是會有系統地整理成分股比重.....
 
 
央行救火隊重現市場？
 

剛過去的周三，美聯儲局主席鮑威爾向市場傳遞樂觀的鴿派信號。他表示，利率水平僅低於大多數所預期的中性利率.....
 
 
 
As of 2018/11/30
 
Equity Indexes

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

USA DJIA
25,538.46
5.16%
3.31%
USA S&P500
2,760.17
4.85%
3.24%
USA NASDAQ
7,330.54
5.64%
6.19%
UK FTSE 100
6,980.24
0.39%
-9.20%
Germany DAX
11,257.24
0.58%
-12.85%
France CAC
5,003.92
1.15%
-5.81%
Japan Nikkei 225
22,351.06
3.25%
-1.82%
Australia ASX 200
5,667.16
-0.86%
-6.56%
Korea KOSPI
2,096.86
1.91%
-15.02%
Hong Kong Hang Seng
26,506.75
2.23%
-11.41%
Hong Kong HSCEI
10,621.74
2.24%
-9.29%
China SHCOMP
2,588.19
0.34%
-21.74%
China SZCOMP
1,337.74
0.19%
-29.57%
Taiwan Taipei Weighted
9,888.03
2.28%
-7.09%
India Sensex
36,194.30
3.47%
6.28%
Russia RTS
1,126.14
1.13%
-2.45%
Brazil Bovespa
89,504.03
3.80%
17.15%
In local currency terms

Fixed Income /Interbank Rate

Latest Level

Weekly Change (bp)

31 Dec 2017 Level

US–2 years
2.79%
-2
1.88%
US–10 years
2.99%
-5
2.41%
German–10 years
0.31%
-3
0.43%
Japan–10 years
0.09%
-1
0.05%
Libor–overnight
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1 month
2.35%
3
1.56%
Libor–3 months
2.74%
4
1.69%
Euribor–1 month
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3 months
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1 month
2.70%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3 month
3.11%
4
4.91%
Hibor–overnight
1.53%
84
1.34%
Hibor–1 month
1.20%
12
1.19%
Hibor–3 months
2.04%
6
1.31%
Note: 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point

Commodity (Spot) / Currency

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Crude oil (NYMEX)
50.93
1.01%
-15.71%
Gold ($/oz)
1222.5
-0.06%
-6.18%
S&P GS Commodity Idx
406.5197
0.73%
-8.12%
RJ/CRB Commodity Idx
187.9389
1.24%
-4.58%
BDIY – Baltic Dry Index
1231
12.63%
-9.88%
EUR – USD
1.1371
0.19%
-5.08%
GBP – USD
1.2756
-0.64%
-5.49%
AUD – USD
0.73
1.07%
-6.61%
USD – JPY
113.51
0.58%
0.87%
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
 
 
 
 
Country/
Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release

Country/Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release
US
Markit US Composite PMI (Nov)
05/12
Govt Expend (3Q)
07/12
Trade Balance (Oct)
06/12
GDP SA (3Q)
07/12
Initial Jobless Claims (Dec)
06/12
Japan
Company Sales (3Q)
03/12
Unemployment Rate (Nov)
07/12
Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (Nov)
05/12
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (Dec)
07/12
Official Reserve Assets (Nov)
07/12
Eurozone
PPI (Oct)
04/12
Leading Index CI (Oct)
07/12
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)
05/12
China
Caixin China PMI Composite (Nov)
05/12
Retail Sales (Oct)
05/12
Foreign Reserves (Nov)
07/12
 
 
 
 
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